Fantasy Football Trade Desk: Is this a Kareem Hunt resurgence or a time to sell?

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Trade Desk

As a former English teacher and now a sportswriter, I may not have a finance background, but I keep up with the industry by watching “Industry” on HBO Max every week and chatting with friends in finance. So, I’ve become somewhat of an expert in stock trades, at least in my own right. In this column, I’ll share my recommendations for fantasy football trades, highlighting which players we should target, which ones to test the waters with, and whom we should hold onto. Our aim is to delve deeper than just the box score by evaluating player roles, usage, and matchups. This approach will help us identify the perfect moments to move on from a well-performing player or gamble on an underperformer. For reference, my data for routes, target share, and other advanced metrics comes from Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report at Fantasy Life, so be sure to check that out. Ultimately, our goal is to maximize the value of our players and achieve the best weekly returns in our fantasy lineups. While some calls may be risky and others more straightforward, I’ll strive to offer a broad perspective to help you navigate trade scenarios in your league. Remember, this is a trade column, so I won’t be discussing players mostly on waiver wires; you can find all those potential names in our excellent waiver wire articles. Don’t forget to catch episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and the Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire assistance, and start/sit advice. lucas harake real mother

Buy The Dip

As many of us know, “Buying the Dip” refers to when an investor purchases an asset after its price has temporarily fallen. This strategy allows us to profit when the price eventually rebounds. The players listed here are those I believe have suffered a value dip in Week 1, and I’m confident they will bounce back in the coming weeks.

James Cook – RB, Buffalo Bills

With James Cook sidelined in Week 6, Bills rookie running back Ray Davis shined on national TV against the Jets, leading to calls for him to become the team’s lead back based on his fit for the team’s downhill running style. In Week 8, Davis carried the ball five times for 41 yards and a touchdown, whereas Cook managed only 32 rushing yards on 12 carries, salvaging his fantasy day with a touchdown. However, I believe Davis’ emergence and questions about Cook’s ability as a feature back present a buying opportunity. Cook played 54% of the team’s snaps in Week 8, took 63% of the rushes, and ran routes on 46% of dropbacks. He just wasn’t targeted and faced a strong Titans defense that allows only 3.9 yards per carry, ranking 4th-best in the NFL.

Darnell Mooney – WR, Atlanta Falcons

I’ve featured Mooney here a few times this season due to his significant role in the Falcons’ passing game, but his inconsistent performance and prior history of disappointing fantasy managers are leading many to give up on him. Three weeks ago, he had an impressive game on national TV, but over the last two weeks, he has averaged just 6.2 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats and is being traded for players like Cole Kmet, Dalton Kincaid, and Jerry Jeudy. Now is the time to buy back in. Mooney has not had a route participation rate lower than 93% this season, a target share under 15%, and has been under 20% only twice this year. His catchable target rate stands at a solid 70%. While he might not replicate his Week 5 performance, he’s a reliable WR3 for your fantasy squad, capable of delivering big weeks in favorable matchups—an excellent option as a bye-week fill-in or injury replacement.

Deebo Samuel – WR, San Francisco 49ers

While acquiring Deebo might be tricky with Aiyuk out for the season, and considering that Deebo is currently in the hospital battling pneumonia, his average of 7.6 fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues over the past month may convince a manager in your league to part ways with him. You won’t get Deebo cheaply, but you could seize an opportunity to acquire him before he breaks out, as he usually does when Aiyuk isn’t playing. According to Dwain McFarland on Fantasy Life, in games where Aiyuk has been absent since 2021, Deebo averages a 38% target share, 41% of the team’s air yards, and 4.88 yards per route run—elite stats for a player who should be considered a dependable WR1 for the rest of the season, assuming he earns the trust of fantasy managers again.

Buy High, Sell Higher

At the beginning of this article, I mentioned that our goal is to maximize the value we get from our players. Sometimes this requires buying low, as previously discussed, while other times it means buying at a perceived high point for a player with uncertain long-term value. If we believe a spike in value has some validity, we can acquire a player, take advantage of their strong performances, and then sell before the risk catches up to us—effectively selling at a higher price. This differs from simply “buying high,” as these players come with some risks and may be ones to trade away later, making it a delicate balancing act.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. – RB, New York Giants

This week, Devin Singletary returned and affected Tyrone Tracy’s workload, but the good news for Tracy is that he remained the lead back. Tracy played 67% of the snaps compared to Singletary’s 22% and handled 40% of the rushes, running routes on 68% of dropbacks, while Singletary had only a 33% rush share and a 15% route participation rate. While it’s possible Singletary is still recovering from his groin injury and may take over the rushing lead, Tracy is likely to handle at least 1/3 of the team’s overall rushes and is the clear receiving back. With the Giants expected to trail often this season, I prefer to have Tracy, especially since he played all the two-minute drill snaps in Week 7. Additionally, he handled the only short-down-and-distance snaps last week, indicating a larger role than many may realize—currently placing him on the RB2/3 border.

David Njoku – TE, Cleveland Browns

Last week, I categorized Njoku as a “buy low,” but since he had a breakout game with 76 yards and a touchdown on 10 catches, I’m moving him to the buy high section. You should trade for Njoku while you can, as he is bound to shine again. Previously, I mentioned, “I’ve put Njoku here because after the Browns traded Amari Cooper to the Bills, you want to snag Njoku if possible. The tight end has averaged only 6.3 fantasy points per game in PPR formats this year, and Deshaun Watson has been arguably the worst quarterback in football, which could leave fantasy managers in your league feeling frustrated. Although Njoku’s usage has been modest, he recorded a 67% route participation rate and 32% of the Browns’ targets. Those numbers should rise with Cooper’s departure, and Njoku getting healthier.” With Deshaun Watson now out for the season and Jameis Winston taking over as quarterback—who threw the touchdown pass to Njoku recently—Njoku seems poised to be a solid TE1 for the remainder of the season.

Buy a Call

When we buy a call on a player, we’re essentially purchasing the option on someone we believe might have a breakout in the future. In finance (as I’ve learned through my research), this means that the buyer is not locked into purchasing the stock but has the option to buy it at a lower price—the strike price—if they wish to do so later on. For us, this translates into adding players to our roster through a small trade because we believe there’s potential for them to thrive later. We want to keep our costs low but want to have these players on hand for potential future gains.

Ladd McConkey – WR, Los Angeles Chargers

While Ladd McConkey won’t come cheap due to his rookie status, I believe you can acquire him now before his fantasy value significantly increases. After a solid Week 4 performance, he has only scored more than nine fantasy points in PPR scoring twice this entire season, making it difficult for his current owner to insert him into the lineup. This challenge arises partly because the Chargers have leaned towards a run-heavy offense; despite McConkey’s 25% target share, that equates to about six targets per game, with roughly 4.5 catchable targets each week. I don’t anticipate those numbers soaring in the next three weeks against the Saints, Browns, and Titans, as I expect the Chargers to rely on their ground game. However, starting in Week 11, they face teams like the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and Bucs. These matchups could lead to games where the Chargers need to pass heavily against weaker secondaries, potentially allowing the rookie to have standout performances. potential danger/injury in fishing Keep an eye out for buying opportunities for McConkey in the upcoming weeks.

Jordan Whittington – WR, Los Angeles Rams

Although this play leans towards deeper leagues, I sense that many are ready to move on from the Rams’ wide receivers now that Cooper Kupp is back and Puka Nacua is beginning to practice again. After attempting to play through a shoulder injury last week, Whittington hardly saw the field, leading many to assume his fantasy relevance is over. However, rumors are circulating about a potential trade for Cooper Kupp, and someone will have to step up alongside Nacua if Kupp gets traded. In Weeks 4 and 5, before the Rams’ bye, Whittington established himself as the top receiver, running 90% of the routes and boasting a 25% target share along with 23% of the team’s air yards, averaging 14.1 PPR points in full-PPR scoring gilas lineup for asian games. I believe he’s a more skilled receiver than Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell, making him a more appealing option for a rebuilding Rams team. If you play in a deeper league and can stash Whittington on your bench while awaiting Kupp’s situation, that move could be beneficial in the long run.

Don’t forget to watch episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and the Rotoworld Football Show all season for the latest player updates, waiver wire assistance, and start/sit advice.

Run a Process

Running a process on a player involves exploring a possible sale without being bound to do so. This tactic is mainly for players we believe will still perform well this season but not at the level their current value reflects.

Kareem Hunt – RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Your league’s fantasy managers might not be high on Hunt, but it’s worth checking because he’s getting impressive usage on the Chiefs, which typically attracts fantasy interest. Without Rashee Rice, the Chiefs have adopted a more run-heavy approach, with Hunt playing 63% of the team’s snaps over the past two games, accounting for 70% of the team’s rushes and running routes on nearly 50% of dropbacks. This led to just under 20 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats. However, I’m skeptical about his performance. Hunt hasn’t looked good for a couple of seasons, and I don’t think he’s found a second wind at 29 years old. He’s missed tackles, gained minimal yardage after contact, and struggles to break off big runs. Adding in the potential returns of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco in the coming weeks, I’d be inclined to take any offer for Hunt due to concerns he might become a fringe RB2/3 and more of a bye-week FLEX play.

Jordan Mason – RB, San Francisco 49ers

It’s possible that fantasy managers have held onto Jordan Mason for too long. I attempted to acquire him in two leagues recently, but both managers regarded Mason as “a season-long starter.” Perhaps this is influenced by Christian McCaffrey’s injury history or a belief in Mason’s talent, but indications suggest that the 49ers expect CMC back by Week 10 after their Week 9 bye. This scenario means Mason could only serve one more week for fantasy managers. We must consider that Mason will revert to being a strict backup when CMC returns, with the added drawback being that Mason lacks the goal-line skills to retain fantasy value when CMC is around, as he has been among the least effective running backs inside the five-yard line this season. If you have CMC, keeping Mason as a handcuff is prudent, but if you don’t own CMC, seeing what you can fetch for Mason now could be smart. Perhaps someone in your league is in dire need this week and would value a one-week production from Mason. Trading him as insurance to a fantasy manager with CMC could be a viable strategy. game pba today At this point, I’d trade Mason for anyone I believe could serve as a usable bye-week or injury replacement for the remaining weeks of the season.

Straight Sell

This section is self-explanatory: these are players we want to move off our roster. We’re not at the point of cutting them yet, but if we can secure anything of value in a trade, we want to let go of these players due to a lack of belief in their long-term viability.

Michael Pittman Jr. – WR, Indianapolis Colts

I previously highlighted Pittman a couple of weeks ago, but he’s still rostered in over 90% of Yahoo leagues, so I’d like to reiterate my stance. With Anthony Richardson back at quarterback, this Colts passing game is taking a significant step backwards from a fantasy standpoint. Pittman’s catchable target rate with Joe Flacco is 75%, but only 60% with Richardson. Richardson is also completing far fewer passes overall and throwing significantly less. With Jonathan Taylor returning, the Colts are likely to lean more on the run moving forward. Therefore, I’m inclined to take what I can get for Pittman.

Who are you considering trading right now in your fantasy football league?